Climate Change threatens humanity. According to prognoses by 2050 there will be about 1 trillion climate refugees. Many of these move to rich developed countries. Europe will be many African migrants‘ destination. Read this article to know why that is bulls***.
Climate Change is one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. Droughts, storms or also cold waves will change humanity’s basis of life dramatically. This affects especially the global south’s poor population. Prognoses predict refugee movements by the millions, if not billions, by 2050. A tremendous proportion will migrate to the rich countries of the West. Europe will be flooded by migration driven by poverty.
That is not true. Yes, Climate Change makes migration more likely. Because of people’s income losses, more people will have the incentive to migrate. However, many people will have also less financial means. Whose basis of life is destroyed, will not be able to finance a thousand kilometers long journey to Europe. Furthermore, migration is not the automatic response to Climate Change. Other adaptation mechanisms, such as improved irregation systems or dams, may help limiting Climate Change’s influence.
Climate Change will affect global migration in three ways. First, more people will be geographically locked. They suffer and cannot afford moving away. This applies to Sahel in Africa or islands which willl disappear because of rising sea levels like Fiji islands.
Second, rural-urban-migration will increase. Climate Change will decrease agricultural production of the rural population. Consequently, parts of the rural population will move into cities. Especially capitals but also other metropolitan areas will be affected. These are e.g. Shanghai or Guangzhou in Asia, Dakhar in Africa or Esteli in Soth America.
Third, roughly as many people will move into risk areas as will move away. This may sound strange. However, because many people move into cities, these will be affected even more by Climate Change. Landslides, floods or water shortages go hand in hand with an increasing population per square meter. Especially squatter settlements are vulnerable.
In contrast, migration to Europe will be neglegible. Many horror stories for the West are exaggerated. However, the question of how to tackle Climate Change must be answered. Migration is one out of many adaptation strategies humanity has. We should not neglect it.
If you want to know more about this topic, check out my book "Grenzenlos - Warum wir illegale Migration neu denken müssen" (German).